The US Federal Reserve (Fed) holds its monetary policy meeting on September 15-16, 2026. Interest rate decisions tend to move gold, since a metal that pays no interest competes directly with bond yields.

In mid-August 2026, the market was pricing in around a 35% probability of a rate hike at this meeting, down from 40% in previous weeks, according to data compiled by IG, after weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data.

That probability is a market estimate at a given moment, not a certainty — it can change with every new economic data point before the meeting.

We'll keep updating this space as the date approaches and the decision becomes known.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.

Sources: https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/gold-price-forecast-2026–how-fed-rate-cut-bets-are-moving-xau-u-260817